NBA Playoff Predictions 2015/2016 – Update April 15 2016

Updated April 15th 2016 –  Round 1 Playoff match-up and outcomes.

EAST:

1. Cavs vs Pistons
   1. Cavs in 5
2. Raptors vs Indiana
   1. Raptors in 5
3. Miami vs Charlotte
   1. Charlotte in 6
4. Atlanta vs Boston
   1. Atlanta in 6

West

1. GSW vs Houston
   1. GSW in 5
2. San Antonio vs Memphis
   1. San Antonio in 5
3. OKC vs Dallas
   1. OKC in 6
4. Clippers vs Portland
   1. Portland in 7

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Here are the questions this post will attempt to predict:

• Rank the top playoff seeds in the EAST and WEST.
• What will be the outcome of each round
• Who will meet in the NBA Finals
• Who will be NBA Champions for 2015/2016
• Who will be Playoff MVP

End of season records and playoff rankings:

Teams	Conference	Regular Season Record	Seed
Cleveland	E	57-25	1
Toronto	E	53-29	2
Miami	E	48-34	3
Boston	E	44-38	4
Atlanta	E	43-39	5
Charlotte	E	43-39	6
Washington	E	43-39	7
Indiana	E	42-40	8
Golden State	W	74-8	1
San Antonio	W	63-19	2
OKC	W	55-27	3
LA Clippers	W	53-29	4
Memphis	W	47-35	5
Portland	W	47-35	6
Dallas	W	42-40	7
Houston	W	41-41	8

Round 1	Team	Team	Result
EAST	Cleveland	Indiana	Cleveland in 6
EAST	Toronto	Washington	Toronto in 6
EAST	Charlotte	Miami	Charlotte in 7
EAST	Atlanta	Boston	Atlanta in 6

 

Round 1	Team	Team	Result
WEST	GSW	Houston	GSW in 6
WEST	San Antonio	Dallas	San Antonio in 6
WEST	OKC	Portland	OKC in 6
WEST	LA Clippers	Memphis	LA Clippers in 6

 

Round 2	Team	Team	Result
EAST	Cleveland	Atlanta	Cleveland in 6
EAST	Toronto	Charlotte	Toronto in 7
WEST	GSW	LA Clippers	GSW in 6
WEST	OKC	San Antonio	OKC in 7

 

Conference Final EAST:

Finals: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor

Prediction: Toronto over Cleveland in 7

Raptors leads the season series 2-1

 

Category	Details	Details	Result
Player Depth Chart
	Lowry/Joseph	Irving/Williams	Advantage Toronto
	JV/Biyombo	Thompson/Mozgov	Tie
	Caroll/Johnson	James/Jefferson	Advantage Cleveland
	DeRozan/Ross	Smith/Shumpert	Advantage Toronto
	Scola/Patterson	Love/Frye	Tie
Grade	Toronto with the Advantage

Category	Detail	Detail	Result
Defensive Efficiency	Cleveland	Toronto
	101.4	102.4	Virtual Tie
Offensive Efficiency	106.7	106.4	Virtual Tie
Pace	95.2	95.3	Virtual Tie
Turn Overs	12.3	12.4	Virtual Tie
TS – True Shooting Percentage	55	55	Tie

The EAST Finals will be a test between two teams that are virtually tied almost all categories. The factor that will put Toronto over Cleveland in my estimation is the MVP play of Lowry this season. Add the stellar play of DeRozan and the return of Caroll’s defensive on LeBron. The Raptors should take this one in a 7 game series.

Conference Final WEST:

Prediction: GSW over OKC in 6

GSW lead season series 3-0

1 Win in OT

Category	Details	Details	Result
Player Depth Chart	GSW	OKC
	Curry/Livingston	Westbrook/Payne	Advantage GSW
	Thompson	Waiters	Advantage GSW
	Bogut/Ezili	Adams/Kanter	Advantage OKC
	Green/Speights	Ibaka/Collison	Advantage GSW
	Barnes/Iguodala	Durant/Singler	Advantage OKC
Grade	GSW with the Advantage

Category	Detail	Detail	Result
Defensive Efficiency	GSW	OKC
	100.2	103	Virtual Tie
Offensive Efficiency	112.5	109.8	Advantage GSW
Pace	102.2	99.4	Advantage GSW
Turn Overs	13.5	13.8	Virtual Tie
TS – True Shooting Percentage	59.2	56.5	Advantage GSW

Prediction: GSW win series in 6 games

Althought the depth chart indicates the teams are tied in player depth chart. No other player in the league has had this level of positive impact on players around him since Michael Jordan. Steph Curry’s play trumps all depth chart matchups giving the Warriors the edge.

GSW has the edge on offensive efficiency, play at an extremely high pace and shoot a higher percentage. The Warriors will take this matchup in 6 games over OKC.

NBA Finals:

Prediction: GSW over Toronto in 6

In order to analyze the head to head matchup between GSW and Toronto, I will consider the following categories.

1. Season Series = Compare Cumulative scores
2. Player Charts without their best players
3. Remove Lowry and Curry from equation
4. Season Offensive Rebounding & Season Defensive Rebounding
5. Season Field Goal Percentage
6. Compare #3 & #4 against season series

Season Series Cumulative Scores

• GSW 227 > Toronto 219
• Margin of victory = 8

Player Depth Chart without best player

• Livingston/Barbosa < Joseph/Wright
• This matchup comes down to Joseph vs Livingston. Edge to Joseph as he is having his best season and his basketball IQ is through the roof due to prior experience with San Antonio

• Thompson/Rush > DeRozan/Ross
• Thompson is a force to be reckoned with however DeRozan and Ross are having excellent seasons themselves. Together they match up to one motivated Klay Thompson when Lowry is around to distribute. Take Lowry away and the Raptors have no one to take away heat from DeRozan.

• Green/Speights > Scola/Patterson
• Green is having his best season thus far and is playing with tremendous confidence. His play outshines both Scola and Patterson

• Bogut/Ezili < Valanciunas/Biyombo
• With two headed monster of Valanciunas and Biyombo, Bogut is no match for them.

• Barnes/Iguodala > Caroll/Johnson
• Take nothing away from young gun Barnes but Andre Iguodala is the X factor in this matchup. He is equal to the task when its his time to bring his A game.

Grade: GSW

Season Offensive Rebounding:

• Toronto 24.4 > GSW 23.8

Season Defensive Rebounding:

• Toronto 77.6 > GSW 75.8

Season Field Goal Precentage:

• Toronto 50.3 < GSW 56.1

Head to Head comparison vs Season Averages

• Game 1 Field Goal Percentage:
• GSW: 53.8
• Toronto: 46.8

Game 2 Field Goal Percentage:

• GSW: 47.9
• Toronto 44

Grade: Raptors show they can hold GSW down from their league high field goal percentage

Game 1 Offensive Rebounds:

• GSW: 9
• Toronto:12

Game 2 Offensive Rebounds:

• GSW: 8
• Toronto: 11

Grade: Raptors show their edge on the offensive glass

Game 1 Defensive Rebounds:

• GSW: 25
• Toronto: 28

Game 2 Defensive Rebounds

• GSW: 35
• Toronto: 27

Grade: Warriors show their resilience in game 2 by out working the Raptors on the defensive glass by a significant margin

Prediction: GSW win series in 6

The Warriors have proven time and time again that their offense is stellar and second to none. However in the head to head match up, Toronto gave GSW everything they could handle. The Raptors have shown that with some effort, their defensive capabilities can limit the Warriors to second chance points. This assumption is based on the expectation that the Warriors will miss more than they make. Thus far, the best team in the NBA and likely ever, have shown us their propensity to score in bunches and score fast.

I can envision the Raptors putting up a fight, however my prediction is GSW in 6 games over the Toronto Raptors.

MVP: Stephen Curry